so we have to see whether paul ryan, who is very smart policy guy, can beat joe biden who makes shall mistake, but he's been around a long time and he those some thing. p. >> you wrote a column suting the debates ultimately are oftentimes historically irrelevant, that they don't change the outcome. is there something specifically happening this time that's different? >> what i said in that story was that historical pattern is that usually even if you have a surprisingly good first debate for one party or the other, usually they don't change the trajectory of the campaign. but every once in a while, and 2000 is the best example, a whole series of thins come together and the vice presidential debate is important in that process to accelerate the wave or stop it. and that's what we'll find out in kentucky later. >> you said the jobs number doesn't matter. is that in part this whole jack welch thing over the weekend around whether the numbers are real, does that matter in all of this? >> i think the jack welch stuff was crazy talk. and earlier in the year when you guys were down in washin